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Shortage of power transformers: reasons for longer delivery times and solutions
Main Causes of the Transformer Shortage
1. Growing Demand Amid the Transition to Clean Energy
The transition to renewable energy sources requires a massive expansion of electrical grids. The European Union plans to invest 584 billion euros by 2030 in developing network infrastructure to connect millions of new electric vehicles, heat pumps, and renewable energy sources.
However, the shortage of transformers threatens these plans. For example, in Germany, delays in building offshore wind farms could reach up to two years due to the lack of large transformers.
2. Aging Existing Transformer Fleet
The majority of transformers in operation have already exceeded their 35-40 year lifespan. Over 70% of transformers in the UK have been in use for more than 25 years. Outdated transformers are less efficient and increase energy losses.
According to a request to the UK energy regulator Ofgem, the average age of a distribution transformer in the UK is 63 years.
3. Supply Chain Issues
The cost of key materials for transformer production, such as grain-oriented electrical steel (GOES) and copper, has risen significantly in recent years. GOES prices have nearly doubled since 2020, and copper prices have increased by 50-60%.
These price hikes complicate production and cause delays in deliveries. The production capacities of many companies are operating at their limits, which exacerbates the shortage.
4. Insufficient Production Capacity
Transformer manufacturers are unable to keep up with the growing demand. In the US, only 20% of transformer needs are met through domestic production. Despite government support, manufacturers are hesitant to invest in expansion due to uncertainty about long-term prospects.
Consequences of the Shortage
1. Delay of Renewable Energy Projects
Experts estimate that around 25% of global renewable energy projects could be delayed due to the transformer shortage. This affects both wind and solar power plants, as well as large battery systems.
2. Increased Project Costs
Since 2020, transformer prices have risen by 60-80%. This leads to higher infrastructure project costs and increased tariffs for end consumers. Manufacturers are forced to pass on the rising raw material costs to their customers, impacting project economics.
3. Threats to Energy System Stability
The shortage of transformers makes it difficult to modernize networks and connect new capacities. This can lead to an increased risk of outages and power supply disruptions, as well as higher energy losses in grids.
Solutions to the Problem
1. Expanding Production Capacities
Major transformer manufacturers, such as Siemens and Hitachi Energy, are investing billions of dollars in building new plants and upgrading existing production capacities. This will help reduce delivery times and increase production volumes.
2. Developing New Technologies
Modern technologies, such as amorphous core transformers, significantly reduce energy losses. These transformers can be up to 80% more efficient compared to traditional models, making them an attractive solution for increasing energy efficiency.
3. International Cooperation and Standardization
Standardizing transformer requirements and harmonizing technical standards can simplify production and reduce costs. International cooperation in the supply of raw materials and components can also help ease the transformer shortage issue.
Conclusion
The transformer shortage presents a serious challenge to the energy sector. Solving the problem requires a comprehensive approach, including investments in production, the development of new technologies, and international cooperation. Without these steps, the implementation of global plans to transition to renewable energy sources could be at risk.